IMPACT EVALUATION OF THE “THIRTEENTH MONTH” OF THE YOUTH BUILDING THE FUTURE PROGRAM

Abstract

This research quantitatively analyzes the impact of the so-called "thirteenth month" within the Youth Building the Future Program (PJCF), focusing exclusively on the active employment policy component, that is, on the employability outcomes of young beneficiaries who complete the program and seek formal employment through the National Employment Service (SNE). A quantitative methodology was used, based on SNE administrative records for the period 2020–2024. Using this information, two analysis groups were formed: a treatment group, comprised of young people enrolled in the "thirteenth month," and a control group, composed of young people who requested job placement services from the SNE but did not participate in the PJCF program. The Inverse Probability method was used to estimate the causal impact of the "thirteenth month." Weighting (IPW), which allows balancing the observable differences between both groups and estimating the Average Treatment Effect . The results indicate that participation in the "thirteenth month" program is associated with a negative and statistically significant effect on formal employability: young people graduating from the PJCF program have a 77.96% lower probability of formal employment compared to those who did not participate but also sought employment through the National Employment Service (SNE). However, these findings should be interpreted with caution, particularly due to the indirect verification of formal employment in the control group. Therefore, it is evident that further evaluations using the original PJCF database are needed to validate these findings.